Reminding that the mutated virus is not yet common, Ertuğrul said, “We know that there is no common variant. If it becomes a common variant, the number of cases already increases. Currently, our case numbers do not decrease, but do not increase,” he said.
Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology Specialist Prof. Dr. Bulent Ertugrul in coronavirus outbreak from March 1 evaluated the transition to normalization in Turkey. Stating that the mutated virus has no effect on the increase in the number of cases in some regions, Ertuğurul said, “The mutated virus is not effective in the spread of the cases at the moment. Due to partial restrictions, we are stuck on the number of cases between 6 thousand and 8 thousand. We cannot bring this further down, we know that the mutated virus is not yet common, that there is no common variant. If it becomes a common variant; the number of cases does not stop at this level anyway, it increases further. Currently, due to partial restrictions, our case numbers are not decreasing, but not increasing. We are going through a controlled epidemic, ”he says.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s statement that “stratification will be made according to the provinces”, Prof.Dr. Ertuğrul evaluated:
“Actually, we cannot talk about the scoring system. Different from what President Erdoğan said, a stratification will be made according to the number of cases seen in 100 thousand people by province. Provinces will be examined in four categories as low, medium, high and high risk provinces. Accordingly, the number of cases seen in 100 thousand will be calculated, looked at and a classification will be made. How to do this has not yet been announced by the Ministry of Health. We can say that the provinces with at least 100 or more cases or 150 or more cases will most likely be defined as high-risk or risky provinces. Provinces with less than 20 cases can be defined as low risk. But we should expect the explanation of this from the Ministry of Health. The Scientific Committee will make a statistical data analysis and decide on this. “
‘OPENING SCHOOLS MAY BE EFFECTIVE IN SOME REGIONS’
Stating that the opening of schools will be risky in regions where the number of cases is high, Prof. Dr. Bülent Ertuğrul said, “If a province is at low risk, it may be difficult to switch to face-to-face training in those provinces and may be monitored closely. But if a province is a high-risk or very high-risk province, then it will be very risky to switch to face-to-face training, ”he said.
THE UNDETECTABLE VIRUS
Evaluating the explanations of scientists that a new mutation seen in Finland did not appear in tests, Ertuğrul said, “Now we check only a part of the genetic structure of the virus in PCR tests. If the mutation occurred outside of the genetic structure we control, then of course it may not be detected. However, later kits are prepared for that mutated region and we begin to detect the gene mutation. In order to fully detect the mutation, it is necessary to analyze the entire genetic structure of the virus, which is the function of the research laboratory. It is not always done, it has to be done more frequently in research laboratories. “Only then can we detect such mutations more easily,” he said.
Prof. Dr. Reminding that coronavirus measures are not fully followed, Ertuğrul said that it is also important how the measures are in place or how much they have been done. “